Before its halving in 2019, analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse Benjamin Cowen predicts that Bitcoin will continue to trend downward in September. The analyst foresees catastrophe for Bitcoin, the most valuable cryptocurrency in the world, citing the coin’s performance and contrasting it to how Bitcoin has fared over time.

Bitcoin is currently trading at about $25,860 and has been under pressure in recent weeks after rising by almost 60% from November 2022 lows, when the decline was accelerated by the failure of FTX and several centralized finance (CeFi) lending platforms like BlockFi. The coin also retraced its July 2023 highs, when it rallied to about $31,800.

Will September Be Tough For BTC Bulls?

Bears erased all gains in August after a strong showing in July. By the end of the month, Bitcoin had lost almost 20% of its value from its peak in July, with losses on August 17 causing a general panic.

According to Cowen’s study, the currency lost 11.31% in August, which is significantly less than the typical return from the previous two years before the coin’s half, when the coin lost 11.71%. His predictions for BTC, though, seem less optimistic in September. 

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On the “brighter” side, if the performance of Bitcoin in September is taken into account for the last two halvings, the average return was -5.66%, meaning that BTC, however bearish, might end up plummeting to about $24,400 by the end of the month. According to this analysis, if past performance is any indication, BTC may decline considerably further over the next few weeks.

Which Way For Bitcoin?

Supporters of Bitcoin are bullish on the medium- to long-term future. The minor recovery in the second half of August and the first week of September may have anchored bullish hopes despite the severe drop on August 17, which drove the currency to fresh H2 2023 lows at about $25,200. Looking at price movement, Bitcoin is not yet out of the woods.

BTC prices are inside the bear candlestick of August 17 on the daily chart, which serves as the primary anchor bar for the current price movement. In addition, despite relatively higher prices, trading volumes are still modest.

Supporters are counting on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in order to see a revitalizing rebound. With the help of this derivative product, institutions might increase their exposure, directing funds and possibly boosting demand for bitcoin.


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