On August 14, co-founder Kevin Kelly of renowned cryptocurrency research company Delphi Digital offered some insightful comments about Bitcoin and the overall crypto industry. According to Kelly, the cryptocurrency market moves in predictable cycles, and based on market data, we are currently in the early stages of a new cycle.

Kelly claims that a cryptocurrency cycle often starts with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH), which is followed by an 80% decline in the following year. After that, BTC would go through a two-year market recovery before starting a bullish run to reach a new ATH.

The Interplay Between The Crypto Cycle And Macroeconomic Signals

According to Kelly’s analysis, a typical crypto cycle lasts four years and is initiated by some elements of the larger macroeconomic business cycle.

The expert pointed out that, for instance, Bitcoin typically reaches new price peaks around the same time as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index, a measure of the US manufacturing sector’s health.

Kevin points out that because of the similarities in market behavior, turning points in a traditional business cycle have been shown to be a good time to expand one’s exposure to risky assets like Bitcoin.

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Intriguingly, according to Kevin Kelly’s study, the ISM is currently moving toward the end of a two-year slump, suggesting that the price of BTC may start rising soon in the months to come.

Kelly cites a number of additional considerations, including the impending Bitcoin Halving event in April 2024, to support his long-term positive price forecast.

 

He also brought up the prospect that the business cycle would not finish bearishly as quickly as expected or that it might present a false bearish finale, such as that witnessed in March 2020.

CoinMarketCap data show that the price of one bitcoin is currently $29,333.89, down 0.12% from the previous day. The token’s daily trading volume has increased by 26.38%, and it is now worth $12.2 billion.

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